What an intermittent base leak actually means
You've spotted water at the bottom of your tank water heater, but it's not there every time you look. That on-again, off-again pattern is the whole story here.
Water heaters expand when they heat. The steel tank grows a fraction of a millimeter, valves feel more pressure, and any weak spot gets stressed. Then everything cools and contracts, and the leak stops.
So the first job isn't fixing anything. It's figuring out exactly where the water comes from and whether it's dangerous.
The good news: a lot of these turn out to be condensation or a loose drain valve, both cheap. The bad news: some are early tank failures, and those don't get better.
The usual suspects, ranked
Here's how I'd bet on it after seeing hundreds of these calls.
Condensation is the most common cause on heaters under 3 years old, especially in humid basements. It only appears during heating and it fools a lot of people into buying a heater they didn't need.
A loose or worn drain valve is close behind. That plastic valve at the bottom weeps under cyclic pressure, and it's the easiest thing to check and cap.
The T&P relief valve is next. When it dribbles during heating, water runs down the discharge tube and pools at the base, so it reads as a bottom leak even though the valve is up top.
Corroded top fittings run water down the outside of the tank and pool at the base too. Always trace wet spots upward before blaming the bottom.
The tank shell crack is last on the list by frequency but first in seriousness. It's the classic intermittent leak that seals when cool and eventually splits wide open.