What a worsening chimney leak actually means
If the leak near your chimney is getting worse, the flashing has failed. That's the metal and sealant that seals the joint between the chimney and the roof.
The chimney is a hole punched through your roof. Everything depends on the metal flashing woven around it doing its job. When that fails, water has a direct path inside.
The good news: most chimney leaks are flashing problems, and flashing problems are fixable without replacing your roof. The bad news: people ignore them because the drip is small at first, then the framing rots.
A worsening leak specifically tells you the failure point is spreading. Sealant that cracked in one spot is now cracked in three. Rust that started as a pinhole is now a gap.
Where the water is really getting in
Chimney flashing is a two-part system. Step flashing (or base flashing) sits under the shingles and against the chimney. Counterflashing tucks into the masonry and laps over the step flashing to shed water.
The joint where counterflashing meets the brick is the weak link. It's sealed with a bead of caulk or mortar that dries out in under a decade. When it cracks, water runs straight behind the flashing.
That's the single most common cause techs find, and it's usually the cheapest to fix if the metal underneath is still good.
The second suspect is old roof tar. Somebody smeared it over the flashing as a quick fix years ago. It cracked, it's trapping water, and it's hiding whether the real flashing is even okay.
On wider chimneys, a missing cricket is the culprit. Without that little peak diverting water around the up-slope side, rain and leaves pile up and eventually force their way in during heavy rain.
Rusted step flashing and a cracked crown round out the usual list. Both need more than a tube of sealant to fix right.