What's actually happening when heat drops off in a cold snap
Your heat pump didn't necessarily break. Cold weather just exposed a weak spot.
A heat pump moves heat from outside air into your house. The colder it gets outside, the less heat there is to grab, so capacity drops naturally as the temperature falls.
That's why every heat pump has backup heat, usually electric resistance strips, sometimes a gas or oil furnace in a dual-fuel setup. In a cold snap, the pump and the backup are supposed to tag-team.
When heating suddenly gets bad, one of two things usually happened. Either the outdoor coil iced over and defrost isn't clearing it, or the backup heat that's supposed to fill the gap isn't running.
The good news: most of these are diagnosable in a few minutes without tools. The bad news: a couple of them (refrigerant, reversing valve) are pro-only and not cheap.
The usual suspects, ranked
In a hard freeze, the defrost cycle is the number one culprit by a wide margin.
Here's how defrost works: the coil frosts up, a sensor or timer notices, and the system briefly reverses to blow warm refrigerant through the outdoor coil and melt the ice. You'll see steam rising off the unit. That's normal and healthy.
When the defrost sensor drifts out of range, the control board fails, or the reversing valve hangs up, the melt cycle never fires. Frost becomes ice, ice becomes a solid block, and heat output falls off a cliff.
The second big one is aux heat not engaging. If a heat strip element burns out or its sequencer fails, the pump keeps running but the house slowly loses ground because nothing covers the shortfall in extreme cold.
Refrigerant charge matters more in winter than summer. A system that cooled fine all July can heat poorly in January because low charge hits hardest when the pump is straining against a big temperature difference.
A stuck reversing valve is less common but dramatic: the unit you hear it, and the air coming out is cool or lukewarm no matter what the thermostat says.
- Iced coil with failed defrost: most common, often a cheap sensor or board fix
- Aux heat not running: very common, ranges from a reset to a new element
- Low refrigerant: pro-only, needs leak repair not just a top-off
- Stuck reversing valve: less common, always a pro repair
- Thermostat config or lockout: quick to rule out yourself