What an intermittent high bill actually tells you
A heat pump that spikes your bill some months and behaves the rest of the year is sending a clear signal: your backup heat is doing work the compressor should be doing.
The compressor is the efficient part. It moves heat instead of making it, so it sips power. Your backup strips make heat by brute force, and they cost about ten times as much per hour to run.
So the pattern matters. If January and February are brutal but October and April look fine, that's aux heat running on the cold days. The intermittent part is your best clue.
Good news: several of the common causes are cheap or free to fix. The rest need a tech, but at least you'll know what to ask for.
The usual suspects, ranked
in most cases, the culprit is backup electric heat running more than it should. The question is what's triggering it.
A stuck or excessive defrost cycle is the most common mechanical trigger. Every defrost fires the strips, so a unit defrosting every 10 minutes is bleeding money.
Low refrigerant is next. As charge drops, the compressor can't make enough heat, and the thermostat leans on strips to close the gap. This one creeps up over a season or two.
Then come the cheap causes: a clogged filter choking airflow, a thermostat accidentally left on Emergency Heat, or an aux lockout set too aggressively.
Deep nighttime setbacks round it out. Heat pumps recover slowly, so a big morning temperature jump makes the thermostat give up and call strips to catch up fast.