What's actually happening
Your firebox is showing water stains, and it started after a renovation. That timing is the whole story.
A chimney that stayed dry for years doesn't suddenly start leaking on its own. Something changed the water seal at the top, and the reno is the obvious suspect.
The most common causes are flashing that got pulled and resealed wrong, a crown cracked by scaffolding, or a cap that never went back on. All three are fixable and none of them are dramatic.
This is a low-urgency problem. You've got weeks to handle it, not hours. But it won't heal itself, and every rain drives more water into the masonry.
Why it's leaking now
Let's talk through what changed. During most renovations, the chimney gets touched even when the chimney wasn't the point of the job.
Roofers pull the flashing to lay new shingles. If they reseal with a bead of silicone instead of relaying proper step and counter flashing, you have a leak on a timer. The caulk cracks in a season and water runs right down the brick face and into the smoke chamber.
Scaffolding and foot traffic on the roof crack crowns. The crown is the concrete slab on top of the chimney, and it's more fragile than it looks. A hairline crack from a dropped tool lets water sit, freeze, and split the masonry over a few weeks.
Sometimes a crew pulls the chimney cap for access and forgets to reinstall it. Then rain goes straight down the flue and lands on the firebox floor. That's the easiest one to spot and the cheapest to fix.
Less often, new roofing changes how water sheds. A rebuilt valley or a relocated gutter can suddenly dump water at the chimney base that the old flashing was never sized to handle.
The location of your stains narrows it down. Side walls that meet the roofline point to flashing. Straight-down staining on the floor and up the flue points to the cap or crown. Broad, diffuse staining on the exterior-facing wall points to open mortar joints.