What's actually happening at the base of your post
The bottom of your deck post is staying wet, and wood that stays wet feeds fungus. That's the whole story in one sentence.
The rot almost always starts in the lowest 6 inches, right where the post meets soil, concrete, or a footing. That zone sees the most water and gets the least sun and air.
If you catch it while the softness is shallow, you're looking at a cheap afternoon fix. If the probe sinks in past a quarter inch, the post has lost real strength and needs to come out.
The good news: base rot is one of the most preventable deck problems. It usually comes down to a missing piece of hardware and some bad drainage, both of which you can fix for good.
Why deck posts rot at the base
in most cases it's water contact that never dries. The post either sits in dirt, sits in concrete, or sits flat on a footing with no gap for drainage.
Pressure treatment helps, but it's not magic. The chemicals protect the outer layers, and any field-cut end exposes untreated wood at the core. Set that raw end in a puddle and it rots from the inside out.
Grading and downspouts matter more than people think. If runoff pools at the base or a gutter dumps within 3 feet, the wood never gets a chance to dry between rains.
Splash-back is the sneaky one. A post next to a patio or walkway takes a daily soaking from rain bouncing off the slab, and the sun rarely reaches that shaded lower foot.
Once decay starts, it can travel. Rot at a wet beam connection works its way down into the post, so a bad base sometimes points to a bigger problem up top.