What's actually happening when your thermostat drops WiFi in winter
Here's the short version: your thermostat isn't broken, and your internet is probably fine. The disconnects show up in winter because your furnace runs harder, and that exposes a weak spot that was hiding all summer.
The two usual suspects are power and signal. Either the thermostat can't hold enough voltage during heavy heating cycles, or the WiFi signal at its location was always marginal and the cold finally tipped it over.
The good news is this is one of the most DIY-friendly problems in the whole HVAC world. Most people fix it in an afternoon with a screwdriver and a wire they didn't know they had.
The thing that trips people up is chasing the router. They reboot it, reset the thermostat, swap channels, and the drops keep coming back every January. That's because the real cause is inside the wall, not in the network settings.
Why winter specifically breaks the connection
Let's talk about the C-wire, because it's behind most of these calls.
A lot of smart thermostats are designed to work without a common wire. To get power, they briefly pulse the heating or cooling circuit, grabbing tiny sips of current and storing it in an internal capacitor. It works fine when the system cycles gently.
Winter wrecks that arrangement. Your furnace fires more often and runs in shorter bursts, so the thermostat never gets a clean stretch to recharge. Internal voltage sags, and the WiFi radio (the hungriest part) shuts off to save the rest of the electronics.
That's why it looks like a WiFi problem when it's really a power problem. The thermostat is quietly browning out.
The second cause is pure signal. Thermostats often live on hallway or exterior walls far from the router. If the signal was already borderline in summer, a cold exterior wall and a couple of closed doors can push it under the line.
Then there's the router itself. If yours sits in a cold garage or an unfinished basement, near-freezing temps and condensation can make it reboot or shed clients. The thermostat is just the device you happen to notice going dark.
Aging hardware plays a supporting role. The buffer capacitor inside a 6 or 7 year old thermostat holds less charge than it did new, so a unit that coped fine for years starts dropping under the same winter load.