What a winter floor sag over a crawlspace actually means
Your floor doesn't sag on its own. Something under it moved. Above a crawlspace, that something is almost always the support system: posts, piers, shims, and the main girder they hold up.
The winter timing narrows it down fast. Floors that dip in the cold and firm up in summer are usually reacting to soil that freezes and heaves, or to wood that shrinks when your furnace dries out the house.
Here's the good news. A lot of what you're feeling traces back to one weak point, often a single post that settled or a stack of shims that fell loose. That's a manageable repair, not a torn-down house.
The bad news is that the same crawlspace conditions that caused it (moisture, cold, standing water) keep working on the wood every day you leave it. So diagnosing it now beats waiting for spring.
The usual suspects, in order
Start with the posts. In most crawlspace homes, wood or steel posts sit under a big central girder and carry the floor load down to piers. When one post settles, rots, or tips, the girder droops and the floor above dips with it.
A lot of older homes never got proper footings under those posts. The post just sits on a flat concrete pier block on the dirt. Over decades that block tips or presses into soft soil, and winter frost speeds it up.
Frost heave is the second big one. Wet soil expands as it freezes, lifting piers unevenly. When it thaws, they don't all drop back the same, so your floor develops a seasonal wobble.
Rot is the slow killer. A humid crawlspace keeps the girder and joist ends damp all year. Poke the wood with a screwdriver. If it sinks in, the wood is failing and sagging under load.
Under all of it, moisture is usually the villain. Bare dirt, a torn vapor barrier, or winter water pooling under the house feeds both the soil softening and the rot. Fix that and you fix the root cause.