What a winter downspout disconnect actually means
A downspout that comes apart in the cold is telling you two things. Something pushed it loose, and the joint was never held together well enough to resist it.
The push is almost always ice. Water gets trapped, freezes, expands, and forces the nearest weak seam open. That seam is usually an elbow or a friction-fit overlap with no screw.
The good news: this is one of the cheaper gutter repairs you'll ever make. Most homeowners fix it for $20–$120 in parts and a Saturday morning.
The catch is timing. If you leave a disconnected downspout through winter, the real damage shows up in spring when the thaw sends a river of meltwater against your foundation.
Why it happened, in plain terms
Start with the clog. Leaves and grit settle in the downspout after fall. The first hard freeze turns that soggy pile into a plug of ice, and the ice needs room to grow.
The weakest point gives. On most homes that's the elbow near the top or a friction-only joint partway down. It pops off rather than splits, which is why you often find the section hanging clean and undamaged.
Weight plays a role too. A long downspout packed with ice can carry 30 to 60 pounds. That load hangs on straps and brackets that were installed to hold an empty pipe, not a frozen one.
Then there's thermal movement. Metal and vinyl shrink in the cold and grow in the heat, and every cycle loosens fasteners a little. After a few winters, a joint held by friction alone finally lets go.
Vinyl systems have their own weakness. Below freezing the material gets brittle and its snap joints lose grip. Techs have seen vinyl elbows practically fall off in your hand in January.
Don't rule out the boring answer either. The bottom elbow gets kicked loose by snow shovels and plows constantly. Check that before you assume the worst.